Franz Niederholzer, UCCE Farm advisor, Colusa, Sutter, and Yuba Counties

Plans are a road map, helping direct focus and energy to get the job done as efficiently as possible. In times of high costs and low prices, planning helps growers and advisors (CCAs, PCA, etc.) find a path to as good a year as possible.

2024 could be a big crop in the state and, very possibly, keep almond prices low as the industry works to move a large inventory. How big could the 2024 crop be? With light crops (lb/acre) in the last two years, the 2024 California almond crop could easily be in the 3-billion-pound range if bloom weather is good. (I get that number by taking the bearing crop acres from 2022 multiplied by the 10-year average yield/acre for the California almond crop. Both those numbers come from the USDA NASS CA almond acreage report released in April, 2023). I think it’s better to budget for a big crop, as much as possible in this market, and go into next year aware of the possible situation.

Maintaining income in a low-price year will require growing a large, high-quality crop. Assuming that bloom and early spring weather is decent next year, a big crop per acre could set and will require significant amounts of potassium and nitrogen and pesticides to protect it. For your consideration and evaluation, the following are some net profit maximizing ideas (just examples of possible approaches) based on UC research results:

• One bloom spray if weather is good at bloom including a FRAC 3 material. Consider using Gear Up, Throttle Down (GUTD) approach to dormant and bloom spraying to save time and diesel. This spray program uses less tractor power and higher gear selection for faster tractor speed to save time and fuel when spraying lighter canopies early in the season. (GUTD does require rechecking sprayer calibration.) If bloom weather is wet, spray every-other-row at pink bud timing using GUTD, follow up with solid spray at full bloom using GUTD. Switch back to slow ground speed and full sprayer power after petal fall as the canopy fills out.
• Based on hull boron levels, apply 0.4 lbs B/acre (equal to 2 lbs Solubor®) in October to increase nut set next spring. Include a low rate of zinc sulfate (5 lbs/acre) if no summer spray was applied. Adjust pH to 5.0 to keep both materials in solution. Where needed, this spray delivers the best return on investment of any fertilizer application.
• Beginning at full leaf out and running into July, fertigate with nitrogen (N) using small weekly doses matching crop use through the season. Save 65 lb N/acre by assuming 90% N use efficiency (N applied: N exported in crop) and budget to use only 225 lb N/acre/year to deliver sufficient N to support a 3000 lb/acre crop (In 2015, a grower might have applied 290 lbs N/acre in 4 applications through the year assuming 70% efficiency to supply a 3000 lb crop). You will need a tank and venturi unit for passive delivery late in irrigation sets. Double check program with spring leaf analyses to keep July leaf N levels above 2.4%.
• In November, apply 3 tons/acre almond shells near the edge of the herbicide strip boundary (closer to the tree row) to deliver 100 lbs K₂O/acre. In season, apply 150 lbs K₂O in weekly increments from April through July. Double check program with last spring (May, June) leaf analyses to avoid falling below sufficient leaf K (1.4%) in July sample.
• Monitor for mites and predators weekly beginning in May. Avoid disruptive sprays (unless leaf footed bug or stinkbug spray needed). Delay or eliminate miticide if beneficials keep spider mites down. Avoid using pyrethroids (Asana®, Warrior®, Brigade®, etc.) and try to skip miticide in hull split. Apply miticide in second hull split spray if spider mite numbers build to a “time to treat” threshold.

Hopefully, the market will turn around and the price will come up. In the meantime, planning for tight times is needed.